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Przesilenie na rynku pracy. Podwyżki płac w przyszłym roku będą mniejsze

Porady Prawne i Finansowe

Przesilenie na rynku pracy. Podwyżki płac w przyszłym roku będą mniejsze

Czwartek, 20 września 2018
Rynek pracy wkrótce wyhamuje. O rekordach sprzed dekady możemy tylko pomarzyć, tak jak i o szybkim dogonieniu Zachodu pod względem wynagrodzeń.
Z najnowszych danych GUS wynika, że w średnich i dużych firmach w sierpniu pracownicy otrzymywali przeciętnie 4798,30 zł brutto, czyli około 3410 zł na rękę. To oznacza, że przeciętny pracownik otrzymał w ciągu ostatniego roku podwyżkę na poziomie 6,8 proc.

Choć to znaczący wzrost płac, drugi miesiąc z rzędu zarówno dynamika, jak i nominalna wartość przeciętnego wynagrodzenia okazuje się niższa. Choć ekonomiści powszechnie spodziewali się spowolnienia, okazało się one większe od oczekiwań. Wynik miał się utrzymać na poziomie 7 proc., a tymczasem spadł poniżej tej granicy po raz pierwszy od marca. Na dodatek minimalnie poniżej prognoz była też dynamika zatrudnienia (3,4 proc. wobec szacowanych 3,5 proc.).

Ekonomiści PKO BP otwarcie zadają pytanie: "Czy rynek pracy złapał zadyszkę?". Sami jeszcze przed publikacją danych należeli do największych optymistów i spodziewali się wzrostu płac o 7,3 proc.

"Ogólny wydźwięk danych, mimo zaskoczenia in minus, jest nadal pozytywny. Na krajowym rynku pracy wciąż trwa boom. Można jednak dostrzec, że dynamika zatrudnienia słabnie względem poziomów widocznych w poprzednich dwóch latach" - czytamy w komentarzu PKO BP.

Na wykresie, pokazującym dynamikę wzrostu wynagrodzeń, widać, że po kilkumiesięcznym trendzie wzrostowym, nastąpiło zatrzymanie, a nawet lekkie cofnięcie. Udało się powtórzyć wynik z przełomu 2011-2012 roku, ale do kilkunastu procent z lat 2007-2008 jeszcze bardzo dużo brakuje.

Płace będą rosły, ale wolniej

Wszystko wskazuje na to, że nawet nie będzie nam dane zbliżyć się do statystyk sprzed dekady. Według Marcina Czaplickiego, ekonomisty PKO BP, do końca roku możliwe są jeszcze nieco większe podwyżki, ale dynamika raczej nie przekroczy 8 proc. A w przyszłym roku ma już być słabiej.

- Od 10 miesięcy trend wzrostu wynagrodzeń utrzymuje się w okolicach 7 proc. Po "odsezonowaniu" danych dynamika wprawdzie lekko rosła, ale w kontekście kolejnych miesięcy trudno oczekiwać wyraźnej poprawy statystyk. Do końca roku możliwe jest jeszcze lekka zwyżka - wskazuje Czaplicki.

Przytacza przy tym prognozy PKO BP, które zakładają, że po średniorocznym tempie wzrostu płac w tym roku na poziomie około 7,5 proc., w przyszłym spadnie w okolice 6,2 proc., a w pojedynczych miesiącach może zejść nawet poniżej 6 proc.

- Na rynku pracy widać nieco mniejszą presję na podwyżki. To efekt m.in. zatrudniania pracowników z Ukrainy czy Białorusi, ale także z dalszych kierunków. Poza tym sami pracodawcy żonglują zamówieniami i dostosowują pracę do kadry, którą już posiadają - zauważa Marcin Czaplicki.

Ekonomista PKO BP dodaje, że w najbliższym czasie stabilizację dynamiki wynagrodzeń będzie wspierało stopniowe spowalnianie naszej gospodarki. Oczekiwany spadek tempa wzrostu PKB znajdzie odzwierciedlenie w decyzjach menedżerów, którzy nie będą potrzebowali zatrudniać tak wielu nowych pracowników.

Nieco bardziej optymistyczne prognozy, z punktu widzenia pracowników, mają ekonomiści Santandera. A przynajmniej w odniesieniu do tego roku.

"Przed końcem roku powinniśmy zobaczyć przyspieszenie płac do nieco poniżej 9 proc. Wynik poniżej 7 proc. nie powinien się naszym zdaniem już powtórzyć w tym roku" - wynika z najnowszych szacunków banku.

Ekonomiści Santandera odnoszą się też do realnego funduszu płac w sektorze przedsiębiorstw, który wzrósł w sierpniu do 8,2 proc. i spodziewają się, że na koniec roku przekroczy 10 proc.

"Rynek pracy pozostaje w napięciu wynikającym z niedoborów siły roboczej, co pozwala podtrzymać teraz 7-procentowe tempo wzrostu płac, które przed końcem roku powinno wzrosnąć do nieco poniżej 9 proc.

Gonimy Zachód, ale powoli

Utrzymanie wysokiego tempa wzrostu płac jest jedynym sposobem, żebyśmy mogli w końcu dogonić pod względem wynagrodzeń kraje Europy Zachodniej. Choć sytuacja się poprawia, ciągle jest przepaść między zarobkami np. Polaków i Niemców.

Podczas gdy średnia w naszym kraju to około 4800 zł brutto, a więc blisko 1120 euro, u naszych zachodnich sąsiadów jest prawie 3-krotnie wyższa. Na koniec ubiegłego roku było to 3209 euro, czyli niecałe 14 tys. zł. Żeby tę przepaść zakopać potrzeba będzie dziesiątek lat.

Ekonomiści sugerują, że próbując oszacować średnie tempo wzrostu płac w perspektywie kolejnych lat, można przyjąć przeciętne tempo wzrostu wydajności. Teoretycznie powinny sobie odpowiadać. Uwzględniając więc wzrost gospodarki i inflację, można przyjąć, że w długim horyzoncie wynagrodzenia mogą rosnąć o 5,5-6 proc. W przypadku Niemiec byłoby to 3-4 proc.

Przy takich założeniach przeciętne wynagrodzenie w naszym kraju mogłoby zrównać się z niemieckim za około 37 lat. Choć takie wyliczenia obarczone są sporym błędem, dobrze pokazują skalę, o której mowa.



źródło: money.pl




tagi: rynek pracy, pracownik, finanse,


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