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PKB wzrasta, ale gospodarka będzie powoli wyhamowywać

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PKB wzrasta, ale gospodarka będzie powoli wyhamowywać

Środa, 13 marca 2019
Produkt krajowy brutto wzrośnie – tymi słowami można podsumować ścieżkę projekcji Narodowego Banku Polskiego, która towarzyszyła publikacji „Raportu o inflacji”. W tym roku nasza gospodarka może liczyć na 4% wzrost PKB. O prognozach na kolejne lata i największych zagrożeniach dla polskiej gospodarki rozmawiamy z Jackiem Kotłowskim, zastępcą dyrektora Departamentu Analiz Ekonomicznych NBP.
- „Spodziewamy się, że w tym roku dynamika wzrostu gospodarczego sięgnie 4%, czyli będzie nadal wysoka, zwłaszcza na tle innych krajów Europy. W kolejnych latach będziemy mieli stopniowe spowolnienie, według naszej prognozy, tempo wzrostu w roku 2020 wyniesie 3,7%, a 3,5% w roku 2021. Nie traktujemy tego jako silnego spowolnienia, raczej jako powrót polskiej gospodarki na ścieżkę długookresowego wzrostu.” – dla Newsrm.tv tłumaczy Jacek Kotłowski.

W II połowie 2018 r. pojawiły się sygnały pogorszenia koniunktury w gospodarce światowej. W III kwartale ub.r. tempo wzrostu globalnego PKB osłabło przede wszystkim wskutek niższej dynamiki w strefie euro oraz w części krajów azjatyckich, w tym w Chinach. Pogłębiło się również spowolnienie produkcji przemysłowej, dóbr kapitałowych oraz dynamika sprzedaży detalicznej.

Powyższe czynniki wpływają także na polską gospodarkę. Jakie czynniki będą miały największy wpływ na polską gospodarkę w najbliższym czasie?
- „Głównym czynnikiem ryzyka w tej kwestii jest spowolnienie wzrostu w strefie euro, zwłaszcza w Niemczech, którzy są naszym głównym partnerem handlowym i tam, jakiekolwiek, tąpnięcia wzrostu gospodarczego przekładają się na nasz eksport. Na szczęście w czwartym kwartale jeszcze tego nie doświadczyliśmy, eksport rósł dosyć szybko, natomiast uważamy, że jest to głównym czynnik ryzyka w naszej projekcji. Wpływa na nas także sytuacja między Chinami i Stanami Zjednoczonymi, chociaż dosyć pośrednio. Głównie poprzez pogorszenie wzrostu gospodarczego w strefie euro, bo gorsza koniunktura w Chinach to zanik dóbr inwestycyjnych z Europy. My, w ramach globalnych łańcuchów dostaw, w dużym stopniu bierzemy udział w tej wymianie handlowej, produkujemy dużo komponentów, które potem, przetwarzane w Niemczech, wędrują nas rynki azjatyckie. Drugim kanałem oddziaływania na naszą gospodarkę, jest ogólna niepewność na świecie, związana z wprowadzaniem taryf czy ceł, co może doprowadzić do wolniejszego wzrostu globalnych sieci podaży – na tym Polska może stracić.” – podkreśla nasz ekspert.

Czy głośna w ostatnim czasie sytuacja, jakoby Niemcy chciały się otworzyć na imigrantów z rynków wschodnich, wpłynie na sytuację gospodarczą Polski?
- „To, jak bardzo Niemcy się otworzą na pracowników z Ukrainy, zależy w dużym stopniu od tego, jaka będzie sytuacja gospodarcza w Niemczech w przyszłym roku czy za dwa lata. Jeżeli będziemy obserwowali spadek zatrudnienia i wzrost bezrobocia, to Niemcy będą mniej chętne do otwierania się na emigrantów. Gdyby jednak nasi zachodzi sąsiedzi zdecydowali się otworzyć granice, to Polska musi liczyć się z bolesnym odpływem pracowników, którzy w jakimś stopniu już się nauczyli pracy w polskiej gospodarce. Natomiast zawsze można tych pracowników zastąpić osobami z innych krajów, bo obserwujemy dużą migrację z krajów niekoniecznie europejskich do Polski.” – uspokaja ekspert.

Ważnym czynnikiem wzrostu PKB w 2019 roku pozostanie spożycie prywatne, do czego przyczyni się korzystna z punktu widzenia pracowników sytuacja na rynku pracy. Dochody gospodarstw domowych podwyższą także świadczenia społeczne: poszerzenie programu „Rodzina 500+” oraz wypłata jednorazowej, trzynastej emerytury i renty i spadek obciążeń podatkowych.

Jeśli chodzi o prognozy na kolejne lata, NBP prognozuje, że w latach 2020-2021 zarówno dynamika wynagrodzeń, jak i liczby pracujących będzie się powoli obniżać, zmniejszając skalę wzrostu dochodów do dyspozycji ludności. Spowoduje to spowolnienie tempa konsumpcji i ograniczy siłę nabywczą gospodarstw domowych.


tagi: PKB, gospodarka, finanse, ekonomia,


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