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Rynek handlowy w aglomeracjach po I połowie roku

Wiadomości

Rynek handlowy w aglomeracjach po I połowie roku

Środa, 18 września 2019
Rynek centrów handlowych w największych polskich aglomeracjach jest dojrzały i dobrze rozwinięty. Około 10 mln konsumentów o rocznej sile nabywczej bliskiej 410 mld zł ma duże możliwości wyboru lokalizacji, oferty i formatu obiektu, w którym robi zakupy. Na koniec czerwca br. w ośmiu największych ośrodkach miejskich działało 215 centrów handlowych o łącznej powierzchni najmu 6,7 mln mkw.
Przyrost powierzchni handlowej w ostatnim półroczu nie był znaczący, ale warto zwrócić uwagę na zachodzące w obiektach zmiany jakościowe – nowe funkcje i przebudowy. Rozwój e-commerce i wchodzenie sieci handlowych w omnichanel wymusza na centrach handlowych stopniowe zmiany w zakresie rozwiązań technologicznych.

– Nowe życie zyskują także lokalizacje o funkcjach mieszanych z rozbudowanym handlem, usługami i gastronomią. Modernizacje i remonty znajdują się w centrum uwagi większości centrów handlowych, które ukończyły 15 lat – mówi Katarzyna Michnikowska, dyrektor w Dziale Doradztwa i Badań Rynku Colliers International.

Poznań i Wrocław najbardziej nasycone

W ciągu ostatniego roku w ośmiu największych aglomeracjach oddano do użytku 8 nowych centrów handlowych i tyle samo rozbudowano. Ich łączna powierzchnia wyniosła ponad 240 tys. mkw. powierzchni najmu. Biorąc pod uwagę jedynie ostatnie sześć miesięcy, podaż wyniosła ponad 130 tys. mkw.

Największe, zarówno pod względem liczby obiektów, jak i ich powierzchni, są rynki aglomeracji warszawskiej (52 centra o łącznej powierzchni ponad 1,7 mln mkw.) i Górnego Śląska (49 centrów, ponad 1,2 mln mkw.), zaś najmniejszym pozostaje Szczecin (305 tys. mkw. w 11 obiektach). Najwyższe nasycenie powierzchnią centrów handlowych odnotowano we Wrocławiu (885 mkw./1000 mieszkańców) i w Poznaniu (857 mkw./1000 mieszkańców).

Najwięcej rekomercjalizacji i renegocjacji

W związku z ograniczeniem aktywności deweloperskiej w największych aglomeracjach w strukturze popytu dominują rekomercjalizacje i renegocjacje umów. Współczynnik pustostanów dla największych aglomeracji pozostaje na średnim poziomie 3,8%, przy czym najwyższe jego wartości notowane są w Łodzi (6,6%), a najniższe w Szczecinie (1,0%).

Lata 2018-2019 na rynku handlowym to czas dyskontów niespożywczych. Dynamiczną ekspansję prowadzą zarówno debiutanci, jak i podmioty o ugruntowanej pozycji, tacy jak: Kik, Dealz, czy Pepco.

W związku z boomem na rynku mieszkaniowym obserwujemy rozwój podmiotów z sektora wszystko dla domu (IKEA, Komfort, Jysk, Home&You, Duka). W dalszym ciągu rosną też sieci klubów fitness. Widać to na przykładzie Poznania, gdzie w okresie lipiec 2018 – czerwiec 2019 umowy w centrach handlowych podpisało aż pięć podmiotów. Otwierają się także kina oraz centra rozrywki lub edukacji.

Polska staje się krajem atrakcyjnym dla marek o profilu budżetowym, co potwierdzają zapowiadane wejścia sieci Primark (Galeria Młociny w Warszawie), Monki (Galeria Katowicka, Bonarka w Krakowie) oraz Weekday (Elektrownia Powiśle w Warszawie).

Pakiety zachęt dla strategicznych najemców

Czynsze w największych aglomeracjach pozostają stabilne, z tendencją wzrostową za najlepsze lokale w pierwszorzędnych centrach handlowych. Praktyką rynkową staje się większa elastyczność w warunkach najmu, szczególnie w przypadku obiektów drugorzędnych. Najemcom o strategicznym znaczeniu dla centrum oferowane są pakiety zachęt, takie jak: partycypacja w kosztach aranżacji powierzchni, najem oparty jedynie o czynsz od obrotu, krótsze okresy najmu, czasowe obniżki czy zamrażanie kosztów eksploatacyjnych.

Zmiany w warunkach najmu w najbliższym czasie przynieść mogą nowe regulacje prawne.

– Wprowadzony zakaz handlu w niedziele wzmacnia dominujące centra i obniża odwiedzalność obiektów drugorzędnych. Kolejnym czynnikiem mogącym mieć wpływ na rynek handlowy w Polsce jest prawdopodobne wejście w życie nowego podatku od sprzedaży detalicznej, zwanego „podatkiem od hipermarketów” – mówi Katarzyna Michnikowska.



tagi: handel, rynek, ekonomia, finanse, centra handlowe,


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