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Niskie stopy procentowe mocno napędzają rynek nieruchomości

Gospodarka

Niskie stopy procentowe mocno napędzają rynek nieruchomości

Wtorek, 03 marca 2020
Niskie realne stopy procentowe i wysoka inflacja powodują, że nie opłaca się oszczędzać na bezpiecznych instrumentach, takich jak lokaty. Z tego powodu Polacy coraz częściej inwestują gotówkę w nieruchomości. Zakupom mieszkań sprzyja też niskie oprocentowanie kredytów. – Gwałtowny wzrost cen nieruchomości to właśnie efekt zbyt niskich stóp procentowych – mówi ekonomista z Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu, dr hab. Bogusław Półtorak. Ich podwyżki mogłyby znacząco zwiększyć raty kredytów. Na razie RPP takich planów nie ma. Liczy, że inflacja sama wyhamuje, bo konsumenci zaczną bardziej wstrzemięźliwie podchodzić do zakupów.
– Ze strony prezesa Narodowego Banku Polskiego słyszymy zapewnienia, że inflacja jest przejściową zwyżką cen wynikającą z jednorazowych przyczyn, np. ze wzrostu cen energii. Te do tej pory były jedne z najniższych w Europie, a ich podwyżki mają skompensować potrzeby inwestycyjne w energetyce – mówi agencji informacyjnej Newseria Biznes dr hab. Bogusław Półtorak, profesor Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu. – Jeżeli, powtarzając argumenty Rady Polityki Pieniężnej, przyczyny są również na zewnątrz, czyli np. po stronie wzrostu cen paliw, może się okazać, że rzeczywiście w ciągu roku–dwóch te ceny wyhamują. Ze strony Rady dochodzi sygnał, że czekamy i zobaczymy, co z tą inflacją w najbliższym czasie będzie.

Zaskakująco wysoki wstępny odczyt inflacji za styczeń 2020 roku – 4,4 proc. rok do roku – wobec i tak wysokich oczekiwań na poziomie 4,2 proc. i celu inflacyjnego 2,5 proc. z dopuszczalnymi odchyleniami +/-1 proc. rozpętał dyskusję na temat polityki pieniężnej RPP. Stopy procentowe pozostają na niezmienionym poziomie od niemal pięciu lat. Są więc dokładnie takie same, jak były przy deflacji na poziomie 1,6 proc., a to różnica 5 pkt proc. To powoduje niskie oprocentowanie depozytów i nieopłacalność trzymania oszczędności na bankowych lokatach.

– Na rynku nieruchomości mieszkaniowych blisko 60 proc. transakcji było dotychczas za gotówkę, co oznacza, że część osób wycofuje pieniądze z banków i szuka alternatyw inwestycyjnych, które pozwolą zrealizować wyższe stopy zwrotu, rekompensujące relatywnie wysoką inflację – komentuje ekonomista Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu.

Z drugiej strony niskie stopy to niski WIBOR, czyli element zmienny kosztu kredytów hipotecznych. Gdyby więc ktoś chciał wykorzystać oszczędności jako wkład własny i wspomóc się kredytem, również ma do niego ułatwiony dostęp. Wiąże się z tym jednak ryzyko, że w razie podwyżki stóp – a taka może być konieczna, jeśli inflacja utrzyma się powyżej 3,5 proc. przez kilka miesięcy – raty zaczną szybko rosnąć.

– Przyrost podstawowej stopy procentowej o 1 pkt proc. oznacza wzrost raty kredytu o kilkanaście procent, czyli to są już bardzo konkretne kwoty – mówi dr hab. Bogusław Półtorak. – Ten popyt na rynku mieszkaniowym tworzy formę bańki na rynku aktywów, która powoduje pytania, czy ceny mieszkań jeszcze będą rosły, czy mamy już syndrom przegrzania rynku.

Zdaniem ekonomisty najlepszy moment na podwyżki minął półtora roku temu, a w warunkach niskich stóp procentowych w strefie euro czy Stanach Zjednoczonych oraz spowolnienia gospodarczego podnoszenie ich teraz byłoby nieracjonalne.

– My w Polsce dzisiaj trochę ryzykujemy. Nie podnosząc stóp procentowych, godzimy się na to, że efekty popytowe napędzają nam inflację. RPP liczy, że inflacja jednak wyhamuje, ponieważ konsumenci sami w pewnym sensie zaczną wstrzemięźliwie podchodzić do zakupów – mówi ekonomista. – Gdyby inflacja styczniowa utrzymała się dłużej, musi pójść sygnał ze strony RPP i NBP, że coś z tym będą robić, że będą wpływać na to, żeby te ceny jednak ograniczać. Moim zdaniem ważny jest element psychologiczny – musimy się przekonać, że te wzrosty cen nie są uzasadnione.

Jak podkreśla, dziś jednak zarówno konsumenci, jak i przedsiębiorcy liczą się ze wzrostem cen, np. żywności i usług. Jest to trend akceptowany przez rynek.

– Kupujemy szybko mieszkania, bo wierzymy, że ceny będą coraz wyższe. Świadczą o tym czynniki podażowe, wzrost kosztów usług, wynagrodzeń w budowlance, cen materiałów budowlanych. Jeśli wszyscy się przekonamy, że jednak musimy ceny naszych usług i nasze wynagrodzenia zmniejszać, czy przynajmniej pozostawić na takim samym poziomie, to uzyskamy takie podejście, że trzeba zacząć bardziej racjonalnie dysponować pieniędzmi i w związku z tym presja na wzrost cen się zmniejszy – podkreśla dr hab. Bogusław Półtorak.



źródło: newseria.pl



tagi: inflacja, stopy procentowe, polityka pieniężna, spowolnienie gospodarcze, NBP, RPP,


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