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Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/common.php on line 955

Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isManip() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/pgsql.php on line 323

Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/common.php on line 960

Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/common.php on line 1302

Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB.php on line 1288

Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isError() should not be called statically in /__handel2/config/db.php on line 51

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Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isManip() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/pgsql.php on line 323

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Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isManip() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/pgsql.php on line 323

Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/common.php on line 960

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Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isManip() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/pgsql.php on line 323

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Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isManip() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/pgsql.php on line 323

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Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isManip() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/pgsql.php on line 323

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Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isManip() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/pgsql.php on line 323

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Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB.php on line 1288

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Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isManip() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/pgsql.php on line 323

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Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isError() should not be called statically in /__handel2/config/db.php on line 51

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Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isManip() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/pgsql.php on line 323

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Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/common.php on line 955

Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isManip() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/pgsql.php on line 323

Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/common.php on line 960

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Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/common.php on line 1536

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Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isError() should not be called statically in /__handel2/config/db.php on line 51

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Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isManip() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/pgsql.php on line 323

Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isError() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/common.php on line 960

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Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isManip() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/pgsql.php on line 323

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Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isManip() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/pgsql.php on line 323

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Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isManip() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/pgsql.php on line 323

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Strict Standards: Non-static method DB::isManip() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /PEAR/DB/pgsql.php on line 323

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Handel w cieniu koronawirusa

Wiadomości

Handel w cieniu koronawirusa

Czwartek, 09 kwietnia 2020
Nie wiadomo jeszcze jak głęboko epidemia wpłynie na bieżące funkcjonowanie handlu spożywczego. Tym bardziej nieznana jest przyszłość po pandemii. Warto jednak być optymistą.

W obliczu ograniczeń

Świat od kilkunastu, zaś Polska od kilku tygodni funkcjonuje w cieniu pandemii koronawirusa. Na skutek działań podejmowanych przez właściwie wszystkie rządy na świecie życie społeczne i gospodarcze ograniczone zostały do niezbędnego minimum, aby uchronić społeczeństwa przed rozprzestrzenianiem się zarazy przynajmniej do czasu, gdy opracowane zostaną lek i szczepionka przeciw wirusowi COVID-19. Większość punktów usługowych i placówek handlowych o charakterze nie spożywczym zaprzestała działalności, transport ludzi i towarów ograniczony został do niezbędnego minimum, urzędnicy i pracownicy biurowi pracują we własnych domach zdalnie obsługując mniej licznych niż dotychczas klientów. Ograniczeń różnego typu wprowadzonych przez władze jest o wiele więcej i trudno je w tym miejscu wszystkie wymienić. Pojawia się natomiast pytanie, jak w takich uwarunkowaniach radzi sobie handel detaliczny i hurtowy produktami szybko zbywalnymi, przeze wszystkim żywnością i środkami czystości? W jaki sposób funkcjonuje obecnie i na co musi się przygotować w najbliższych miesiącach i latach, kiedy to cała gospodarka będzie walczyła o powrót do normalności?

Pierwszy szok za nami

Nie ulega wątpliwości, że na tle szeregu innych branż handel spożywczy znalazł się w relatywnie dobrej sytuacji. Przede wszystkim dlatego, że w odróżnieniu od innych nie został odgórnie „zamknięty”. Cóż, ludzie muszą jeść i myć się, szczególnie obecnie i poważniejsze ograniczenie dostępu do odpowiednich dóbr mogłoby zaowocować po prostu rozruchami. Ograniczenia oczywiście są (mniejsza liczba klientów w sklepach, konieczność zapewnienia jednorazowych rękawiczek i możliwości użycia środków dezynfekujących w placówkach handlowych, itp.), jednak handel produktami FMCG funkcjonuje, poza tym, całkiem nieźle. A w pierwszych dniach po wprowadzeniu restrykcji rządowych nawet doskonale. Nielsen ocenia, że między 9 i 15. marca wartość koszyka FMCG wzrosła o 57 proc. w porównaniu do tego samego tygodnia rok wcześniej. W rezultacie osiągnęła ona wartość zbliżoną do szczytów sprzedaży typowych dla okresu przedświątecznego. Potem jednak obroty wyraźnie spadły, zaś proces zakupowy na skutek kolejnych ograniczeń stał się mocno utrudniony i wiadomo, że sytuacja szybko nie wróci do normy.  Trudno przecież oczekiwać, aby przy ograniczonej odgórnie liczbie klientów sprzedaż rosła. Jednak dobrze zorganizowane placówki handlowe, przede wszystkim te działające w ramach sieci czy to własnościowych, czy franczyzowych, mają niemałe szanse przerwania najtrudniejszych tygodni jakie jeszcze przed społeczeństwem i gospodarką stoją. Póki co łańcuch dostaw nie został poważniej nadwyrężony, w związku z czym dostawy, chociaż niekiedy mniejsze niż dawniej, trafiają do sklepów bez poważniejszych problemów. I chociaż wsparcie rządowe, wbrew buńczucznym zapowiedziom jest znikome, wszystko jak dotąd wskazuje na to, że handel detaliczny i hurtowy produktami szybko zbywalnymi przetrwa w lepszej, lub gorszej kondycji te najtrudniejsze tygodnie pandemii. O wiele trudniejsze natomiast wydaje się znalezienie odpowiedzi, w jakim kształcie się on wyłoni w okresie kryzysu i recesji, które bez wątpienia nastąpią w najbliższych miesiącach, a nawet, nie daj Boże, latach.
 
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Kryzys nieunikniony

Zbliżający się na skutek pandemii kryzys ekonomiczny określany jest częstokroć jako być może największy od czasów wielkiego kryzysu z lat 1929-33. Nikt nie może mieć tu jednak pewności – przypomnijmy, że podobne opinie wygłaszane byłe przy okazji kryzysu roku 2008, który, mimo iż odcisnął spore piętno na gospodarce, zaś jego konsekwencje odczuwaliśmy do połowy drugiej dekady bieżącego stulecia, to jednak nie okazał się on tak straszny, jak go wcześniej malowano.  Spowodował raczej kilkuletnią stagnację niż poważniejszą recesję. Już teraz wiadomo jednak, że kryzys po epidemii będzie poważniejszy. Wszyscy liczą się właśnie ze sporą recesją, skokowym wzrostem bezrobocia, narastającymi procesami inflacyjnymi. A przede wszystkim z bardzo powolnym przełamywaniem tych słabości. Nadzieją jest fakt, iż zasoby, tak finansowe, jak i organizacyjne świata wydają się na tyle znaczące, iż będą w stanie z jednej strony nie dopuścić do zbyt głębokiej recesji, z drugiej zaś wesprzeć odradzającą się gospodarkę. Niektórzy porównują sytuację do tej po II wojnie światowej. Porównanie to jest o tyle nie adekwatne, że wówczas był kraj niedotknięty gospodarczo przez wojnę, a nawet wręcz przeciwnie, który był w stanie wystąpić z pamiętnym planem Marshalla wspierającym światową gospodarkę. Obecnie Stany Zjednoczone są także dotknięte przez pandemię i trudno oczekiwać z ich strony wsparcia. Pozostają natomiast takie instytucje jak Bank Światowy, Europejski Bank Odbudowy i Rozwoju, czy szereg innych instytucji finansowych i organizacji, które będą w stanie wesprzeć odbudowę światowej gospodarki. Prawdopodobnie także kraje azjatyckie, które nieźle radzą sobie z koronawirusem, nie pozostaną głuche na potrzeby reszty świata. Chociaż trzeba otwarcie powiedzieć, że proces dochodzenia do „normalności” może okazać się niezwykle bolesny tak społecznie, jak i politycznie.

Szansa w elastyczności

Jak w tym kontekście może wyglądać handel spożywczy? Na tak postawione pytanie nikt nie udzieli w pełni satysfakcjonującej odpowiedzi, bowiem po epidemii zmienią się bez wątpienia potrzeby, oczekiwania i możliwości konsumentów. Można spodziewać się mniej „rozbuchanej” konsumpcji, większej ostrożności przy zakupach i przeniesienia wielu czynności zakupowych do internetu. Jeśli dodać do tego skromniejsze niż w ostatnich latach możliwości nabywcze społeczeństwa (inflacja, bezrobocie) to będziemy mieli obraz zupełnie innego rynku niż znamy z ostatnich lat. Szczęśliwie lata te, lata drugiej dekady XXI stulecia, mocno zweryfikowały strukturę polskiego handlu w wyniku czego na rynku dominują elastyczne i silne finansowo i organizacyjnie podmioty. To spora szansa dla handlu produktami FMCG w okresie kryzysu – na rynku spożywczym pozostały już w większości firmy potrafiące bardzo elastycznie dostosować się do nowych, nawet mało znanych, warunków funkcjonowania. I dotyczy to zarówno sieci handlowych o różnym statusie własności, jak i pojedynczych, przemyślanych i dobrze zorganizowanych sklepów. Jeżeli dodać do tego fakt, iż polski handel jest nieźle przygotowany do sprzedaży na platformach internetowych, to optymistyczne spojrzenie w przyszłość jest być może w pełni uzasadnione. 

 
Witold Nartowski

tagi: koronawirus, handel, epidemia, nartowski, wirus,


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